A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
